"if you can remember pattyp was the DCF of $3 and above that i suggested in an earlier post consistent with your posts from 2008? "
My god... Just managed to find all my posts on "alternative site". Mega dejavu!
I had a really great Excel Spreadsheet that I posted here at HC, but I cant find it on my PC. Must be on a backup somewhere. Never-the-less... This is what I had a few years ago. Im sure I would do things different now (More conservative).. But yea, 10years @ 10% I had $3.34.
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-= 10yr DCF =-
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Prod. Ramp (200x2yr, 300x3yr, 400x5yr)
Avg Price per ton $500
Avg Cost per ton $220
CAPEX 150m (20% eq / 80% De)
Debt Paid off in 8yrs (Avg $18m p/yr)
95m Shares w/future full dilution
EBT Avg: $73m p/yr
Free Cash Flow Avg: $50m p/yr
Fair Value: MC $683,142,955, SP $7.22, f-PE 9
NPV 10%: MCap $315,792,140.09, SP $3.34, f-PE 4
And maybe Avg 30c p/yr dividend if we are lucky
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