LYC 2.41% $6.87 lynas rare earths limited

Mining CEO of the year, page-16

  1. 19,586 Posts.
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    Lynas PR is "under promise & over deliver", tends to stick in punters minds better that way.

    What I think needs to be considered is "RE industry PR" as a whole, of which Lynas is but a small part.

    Simple form, RE is broadly tainted by the Dragon's past behaviour, and Lynas the whipping child for every RE wannabe promoter, the level & frequency of "misrepresentation" is horrendous, I could point you at a dozen examples past few daze, incl here.

    RE a tiny little industry and while topical ATM not all publicity is good publicity, particularly if it reinforces the taint, even as it is disseminated on RE enabled devices. You might also look to the SP's of the main Chinese players, other than a rush of money last year's speculation they have been inverse to LYC past couple of years.

    IMO you will never successfully promote RE as a "product", people will never want to understand the benefits as they relate personally, or care, so inevitably it is driven by fear, speculation, see tainted above.

    The only reason punters blew a lithium & cobalt bubble was because they understood batteries, Li-I batteries, and some of the most fantastic projections into next decade.

    In the same way I believe punters will come to understand electric motors, consumers of ~50% of all electricity generated, specifically an emerging new generation of PMM, purposely designed to leverage the inherent advantage of advanced NdFeB, that will make the cost/efficiency decision a no brainer from chook sheds to skyscrapers, among others.

    It is the delivery of the benefit that matters, who cares about REO? IMO we are witnessing the third phase of the development, the final step in the middle supply chain, to deliver the most tangible benefit, the NdFeB PMM.

    Posted numerous ROW examples recently, out of the lab and in commercial production, and yet another report from the Dragon this week:

    "Baotou recently announced that Northern Rare Earth Group plans to invest RMB 10 billion in building a national center of excellence for the production and research and development of electric motors.
    Furthermore, Xiamen Tungsten announced signing of an agreement with Jimei District Government of Xiamen City on the construction of an Electric Motor Permanent Magnet Park.
    As the cornerstone investor, Xiamen Tungsten will invest approximately RMB 2 billion to establish an industrial development fund with other investors, in order to raise RMB 10 billion for permanent magnet motor programs."


    And NdFeB development is FAR from done, although HRE definitely is as an investment proposition:

    http://newmat.chinaiol.com/xtcl/s/0731/02199392.html

    In the meantime Lynas PR doesn't come much better than this:

    Pages from HY18 6A874662_LYC.jpg

    HY19, and again HY20, will be the "over deliver" IMO, and likely confluence RE industry maturity, barring CJ's Black Swan, of course.
    Last edited by ausheds: 02/08/18
 
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