Hey mate, I really don't think I am being overly optimistic to be fair and I'll explain my reasons why.
ATM we have 1.4B shares on issue.
HOHNEN is incentivised when the Share price reaches certain milestones and trades there for at least a 10 day VWOP: CAYAN : OPTION EXPIRING 02-DEC-2025 EX $0.09 1,000,000 CAYAO : OPTION EXPIRING 02-DEC-2025 EX $0.12 1,000,000 CAYAP : OPTION EXPIRING 02-DEC-2025 EX $0.17 1,000,000
JS is also incentivised when the Share price reaches certain milestones and trades there for at least a 10-day VWOP: 1M performance rights vesting upon the achievement of a 10-day (VWAP) of $0.10; 1M performance rights vesting upon the achievement of a 10-day VWAP of $0.15; 1M performance rights vesting upon the achievement of a 10-day VWAP of $0.20; 1M performance rights vesting upon the achievement of a 10-day VWAP of $0.25.
I believe these gents want these shares to be in the money and receive these shares. They are incentivised to get the price at these levels. (Note HOHNENS options expire within 15 months). To be fair, we haven't traded too badly the last 12 months, compared to the rest of the market.
The current top 5 Shareholders ATM as of the 31/08/24, own 56.41% of the SOI and some are continuing to accumulate. From my research, the main selling ATM are holders that participated in the 4.5c CRAP raise and a chunk exercised their 7c options recently. This selling will dry up in due course once they finish and on a positive, the buying continues to increase. Many of the other loyal Top 50 SH's I know, have averages between 15-20c and I would suggest, most won't contemplate selling before they get their money back at a minimum.
Marketing hasn't been existent for many years. This will commence upon the ML being issued and will be global. Marketing in the previous years was mainly limited to Australia. Our asset/s will be of global significant interest due to their quality and purity and with that will come more international investors. Some have already entered the arena and are quite a few new international investors are present in our Top 50 of SH's.
Aluminium/Bauxite prices are high and certainly don't look like dropping any time soon. (Great for us and the upcoming BFS/DFS).
I believe we will see new Timelines/Investor Presentations soon, with more positive correspondence from the board in the coming future, especially once the ML has been issued. Especially now we have commitment from the Cameroon Govt after signing the Mining Convention. I agree, more communications would have been nice the last 12 months, but it's hard to update SH's when there hasn't been much to update? Everything has been reliant on some signatures. At least the "Imminent" word has disappeared from their vocab. Lessons learnt from history maybe?
Speaking of EEA's 500M - 7c options expiring Dec 2026, for them to come into play we will have a ML, in addition to Port and Rail agreements cemented in place. You are correct in we will have just shy of 2B SOI if the status quo stays the same. However, With the above milestones being executed, inclusive off Offtakes etc, I believe we will be trading at 20c minimum easily. (All in my humble opinion).
I also agree the extra conditions of the newly signed Mining Convention are more stringent than what the previous board and supporting brokers lead us to believe would be the case and is independent of the ML being issued. I believe however, we will still be highly profitable. Clearly EEA and the board also think so, as they are boxing on and progressing forward. Add to this, Bauxite prices and demand for high quality, green aluminium remains high and is in demand. Since the previous BFS was issued in 2022, some countries are no longer exporting Bauxite, and some are imposing strict contingency plans which adds extra pressure to their bottom $$$ and exporting capabilities. Adding to demand for our product.
I cannot wait to see what the latest figures for the updated BFS/DFS reveal. I believe we will find out soon. I'll wrap up my reasoning with my research on EEA as I have previously posted. They have invested a lot of money here and their reputation of investing in Africa speaks for itself. With that comes big investors with big fat wallets, that follow their lead. I doubt they will just want a return of their investment consisting of a few cents in the $$. They will want multi bags like they have previously and successfully accomplished and have been monumental to get us to where we are now.
The above are just my opinions only, based on my own research not to be taken as financial advice.
(20min delay)