JRV 10.0% 1.1¢ jervois global limited

The below mentioned forecast is based on the assumption that...

  1. 1,551 Posts.
    The below mentioned forecast is based on the assumption that Young could or should be developed by jrv existing shareholders (a) fully owned by current shareholders with
    borroed funds(highly unlikely) or (b) partially owned by current jrv shareholders together with a joint venturer and borrowed funding.
    I am assuming that plant & eq. costs would be $700m approx. That we would require cash facilities of $100m. I am also assuming that the Young tenements should be worth
    $250m as they are. JRV shareholders could be then issued with $250m worth of shares in a new company. I have then assumed that the plant & equip. $700m and the cash facility of $100m could be funded with borrowed funds baseds on 40% equity. ie. provide $320m and borrow $480m.
    The new company would have to raise an additional $320m
    in share capital to achieve this. As I mentioned before existing jrv shareholders would be issued free $250m worth of shares, and be offered the opportunity to participate in applying for additional shares in the new company. The share raising could be underwritten by a Company looking for an offtake agreement on the minerals produced at Young.
    Shares not taken up by the existing jrv shareholders would be then available to the underwriting Company.
    To summarize: Raise $320m borrow $480m and keep as much
    equity in the hands of current investors.
    I would imagine that the underwriting Company would end up with quite a few shares in any case.

    Mining Forecast Young.
    Plant 5 mtpa.
    Nic yield .72% 90% rec = .648%
    Cob yield .070% 90% rec =.0063%
    Iron yield 20% 90% rec = 18% Low grade improve to 60% fe
    sp nic $30k/t cob $80k/t Iron $80/t.
    Yields nic 32.4 kt cob 3.15 kt Iron 900kt down to 300kt
    Total Sales PA $1.224B
    Total ore mined 5m t.
    Mining & Leaching cost $80/t = $400m
    depreciation $70m interest $48m Total cost $518m
    Profit before tax $706m Tax $247.1m
    After tax profit $458.9m
    Capitalise 12.5% return Co worth $3.671 b
    Shares on Issue 4.9b approx
    Shares worth 75 cents.

    No. shares calculation.
    total shares on issue 2,141,799,604 worth $250m = 11.7c each.
    capital raised 2,735,042,700 Worth $320m = 11.7c
    total shares on issue. 4,876,842,304.

    Hope you can follow my logic, the assumptions I have made may not be strictly accurate but my overall point of view
    is reasonable. Please criticize and comment constructively
    so I or we can learn from this exercise.
    Deepdiver I would appreciate your comments.
 
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