Given that the fundraising campaign looks to fall short of covering all holders, I've been looking at ways to make intelligent choices about who we mail and who we don't. Some interesting information has popped out of my data mining efforts.
A) WHAT I GOT FROM THE REGISTRYShort answer... not much: postal address (no email), date of first investment, recorded holding as at 3-May. Allowing T+4 for the record date that means I probably have holders who bought on market up to 31-Apr.
B) WHAT I DIDFor the most part I've just been filtering and sorting. I also had to move the street address to a dedicated field and split up the bottom line of the address into postcode, state and suburb for mail house.
The one significant thing I did for data mining purposes was to down the full ResApp trade history back to the code change to RAP on 17-Jul-2015. I matched these prices back to each holder's "First investment date". This allowed me to make an educated guess about where the holder sits with respect to the 11.5c water line, assuming that the holder bought their entire current holding on that day at the closing price. Of course that assumption is completely unsupportable. Holders may have averaged all over the place since their entry date. But without any data on subsequent movements I can't make a better estimate.
C) WHAT I FOUNDSeveral interesting things, bearing in mind that I've been focusing on selecting targets for the mail out and looking for factors that might influence voting on the takeover...
- We have a mountain of holders from Narhex days! There are nearly 900 holders who bought Narhex shares, not Resapp shares. Some have tiny, tiny holdings. Others have millions. Between the lot of them they hold over 185 million shares. Of course, some Narhex holders have certainly loaded up bigly more recently on Resapp. Nevertheless, the patience of these holders is astonishing. Vote NO you guys... you've come this far... now reap the rewards!
- New holders have been piling on since the takeover announcement. Admittedly these could be returning old holders who had sold out completely. The "First investment date" is the earliest date of continuous holding, so it gets reset every time you sell out and reenter. There are 434 holders in my list who entered on or after 11-Apr, holding 41 million shares between them.
- Underwater holders outnumber profitable holders 2:1. Keeping in mind the limitations I noted above about deciding where holders are sitting with regard to the 11.5c water line, 4,000 holders entered on a day that the share price closed above 11.5c and 2,000 holders entered below that price.
- There's no obvious evidence of Pfizer "stooges". Doesn't mean they're not, but there's no evidence of it in the new entries. Of the 434 new holders the vast majority are home addresses. There are very few duplicated home addresses, and the ones that are duplicated it's under different family members with sometimes a super fund as well. There are only 105 PO Box addresses. Of those 105 there is only one address that appears more than twice. This one address appears 49 times. But all of those holders are care of a well known investment advisory service. I suspect that even if there are holders "planted" by Pfizer they will be completely overwhelmed by independent holders who have taken a position relying on the takeover to be rejected in order to realise a return on their investments.
If you have questions that can be answered without exposing individual information, post them. If I have the time and the data I'll see what I can come up with.
