AUSTRALIANS who rely on a certain section of the media for their news and political commentary should be careful of being misled about the relative standings of the main political parties. For most of the three years leading up to last year’s election, Fairfax newspapers, the ABC and The Guardian online were anticipating Labor’s electoral recovery with bated breath. Then and now, it’s clear their narratives were shaped, at least in part, by ALP spinmeisters who were more skilled than many of those they were influencing.
In reality, as the first chapter of Paul Kelly’s book Triumph and Demise reveals, most of the Labor cabinet knew they were dead in the water politically on June 23, 2010, the day before Julia Gillard challenged and defeated Kevin Rudd for the party leadership. Unfortunately for their readers, viewers and listeners, the outlook of many commentators remains captive to Labor spin, which is distorting their perceptions of Tony Abbott after a year in office.
On ABC television’s Insiders yesterday The Guardian’s Lenore Taylor argued the Prime Minister is in deep trouble because his broken spending promises will be as damaging as Ms Gillard’s promise not to introduce a carbon tax. They won’t. Whatever economies in health, education and welfare spending he manages to get through the Senate will not inflame the mainstream electorate, especially aspirational swinging voters in marginal seats, as Ms Gillard’s ill-conceived carbon tax did. After taking a heavy hit immediately after the May budget, which was poorly sold and explained from day one, Mr Abbott’s ratings in Newspoll have been recovering.
Compared with their predecessors on both sides of politics, the Rudd and Gillard governments pitched their policies well to the left of mainstream Australia. Foolishly, Bill Shorten has continued to cling to that big-spending, big-government political ground. Provided Mr Abbott does not lurch too far right, Labor’s refusal to heed the lessons of its defeat and move more towards the centre will boost the Coalition’s chances of winning the next election comfortably.
