There's a truism that I subscribe to that goes something like "if there's a choice between a conspiracy and a cock up, go with cock up".
Billysnap's XJM Vs BTR graph is quite a persuasive explanation for the recent share price decline. The fact that Kitumba was upgraded in confidence (I forget the terminology, was it inferred to measured?) but not upgraded in size or grade at about the same time against market expectations would be the cock up that explains what's happened to the share price.
The change in chairman may just be one of those things. The change in the CEO is a bigger deal, and probably means something but I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing. You have to give Scott credit for keeping BTR alive and taking the share price from 7c to almost $2. The fact it's languishing at the moment is very disappointing, but he's going to leave the company a lot healthier than when he found it.
If I had to guess, and I'm only guessing, I'd say he's being squeezed out. He's done a great job taking BTR from explorer to miner, but someone (the board? Glencore? Major shareholders?) has determined a different skill set is required for the next chapter in BTR's long roller-coaster history.
If I wanted to contiune guessing, I'd say it has something to do with the completion of the Glencore/Xstrata merger which was announced yesterday. If I'm right about that, then I expect BTR is being looked at closely for acquisition by Glencore/Xstrata. They've already put a price on Perkoa, it would just be a matter of determining what Kitumba is worth. The longer it takes I'd say the better off shareholders will be, but from a psychological perspective it would be smarter to do it now. We poor shareholders are a bit battered and bruised at the momment. When the price was $2 I wanted $5-10. Now that it's 50c I'd like my $2 back and would probably be really happy with $3. My expecations have been modified. Conspiracy or cock up? Time will tell.
It's never boring owning BTR. All my thoughts are idle speculation with no insider knowledge. I haven't spoken to Scott since the share price drop and he gave absolutely no hint he was resigning. I will wish him well next time I speak to him because I do think he's done a good job, and I'm hoping the next guy/gal also does a good job.
Good luck to all. We could do with some luck.
BTR Price at posting:
48.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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