Bit of a nothing article, from an empirical conclusion...

Bit of a nothing article, from an empirical conclusion viewpoint:

1. That the range is 9,000 to 37,000 (180% to 740% of the case number in Victoria at the start of the study period, viz. ~5,000) means the study's forecast errors are extremely high, so as to render it almost meaningless, from a statistical reliability standpoint (you could just as well have guessed that magnitude of dispersion).

2. In the context of exponential growth rates, and the current doubling of cases in Victoria in the past 3 weeks, to around 12,000 cases currently, it would take a little over 2 weeks again to hit the additional 9,000 case figure referenced in that study.

3. If Victoria averted 9,000 to 37,000 cases - and is somehow being held up as some sort of benchmark - then one wonders how many hundreds of thousands of cases other states have averted.

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