This would imply that US$250m has been spent or is about to be spent on the project (assuming the LSX interest is 20%) which would be a massive positive. I think the biggest problem with this project has been inactivity. If there was strong evidence the project was moving forward in a meaningful way, I think the market would embrace it. One of the benefits of being a minority JV partner is your share of expenditure is proportionately much smaller (more manageable).
I would associate a cash call of that size with perhaps the capital costs associated with building the mine. Obviously at that point market confidence in the project would be that much higher. Lion could even borrow their share of the capital costs.
I see a more likely risk being the project goes nowhere for the next 18-24 months and the Indonesian JV partners frustrate Lion (and their shareholders) out of their interest. They ultimately make Lion a fair offer which would of course be a fraction of what the project would ultimately be worth if it was operational.
One of the biggest challenges for any minority interest holder of a potentially world class asset is actually managing to maintain that interest through to the production stage.
LSX Price at posting:
56.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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