Market on tenterhooksYes MLS dropped 3 pips to finish on 4.2c....

Market on tenterhooks

Yes MLS dropped 3 pips to finish on 4.2c. The volume today was average, just over 6.3m shares traded. We need Mr Biggs to come out and say something. In the podcast we were told some announcements will come in 3 to 4 weeks - but they are all silent now, not good.

ASX Li stocks had a good decline. Of the 54 stocks that I track, average decline was 7%.

On Friday, US Li stocks went down but only around 3% - our decline today was much larger.

What next -

On Friday SP 500 did not go below June low of 3636, rebounded from 3647 and finished slightly strong in context on 3693. The DOW though has gone below the June bottom. ASX today mirrored US drop on Friday and fell around 1.6%.

Did a lot of reading/watching on the weekend. Overall my feel of what analysts are feeling at this stage:

• There is a chance of a technical rebound. What analysts are not sure of if that will happen now or before we go a bit further down and rebound - but many feel its on the cards. If we rebound from here, the first resistance is shortly around SP 500 level of around 3740. A record level of Puts in Place (Shorting), sometimes markets want to go against the obvious and what every body is doing.
• Many other analysts feel that there is a chance SP 500 will go below June bottom. The number many feel we could reach shortly and possibly rebound is around 3500/3520. This is roughly further 5% down from here.
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Personally at this stage I am in wait and watch stage, as I mentioned before had sold most of my trading shares. I know no one can get absolute bottom and at some stage risk/reward could become favourable for a buy (Probability of % drop vs Probability of % gain). As I had mentioned last week, I am playing to see what happens around June bottom, and that is key for me at this stage before I decide what to do.

So what will happen tonight? US Futures are in decent green at this stage. Asian markets were big red, many falling over 2%. On Friday the volatility index VIX had shot up to 32 before settling around 30. One sign of bottom/capitulation is also VIX hitting above 40 - possible signal for bottom can happen there - so watching that. Cryptos are bit down, but surprisingly they are not capitulating like stock market. Bitcoin is hovering around 19k for some time, though its slightly below now. Some Fed speech and Manufacturing index tonight - they could provide direction. A lot of Feds are speaking throughout this week including Powell - lets see if they provide any relief or are intent on decimating the markets. Will we get the technical bounce tonight that will provide some relief and a rally? Lets hope so. All the best.