MLS Weekly Report, page-61

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 14th Oct 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.

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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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NO DIARY THIS WEEK: This week there is no diary. Markets are very volatile and I am changing my position on a daily basis. I will return to diary once things stabilise - hopefully soon.
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Also, I was away this weekend, so have a short commentary.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 54 stocks.
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Markets at pivotal point:

• On Friday I had written both the bear case and bull case. There was an equal chance of a big drop on US indices on Friday. The bears won the day.
• Although US indices fell on Friday, the rise from Thursday is still not invalidated. This is because the drop on Friday was a 50% retracement and has not taken out Thursday's lows. These retracements are common in a bounce. Based on my reading, at this stage there is still around 40% chance that the bounce towards SP 500 to a value between 3700 to 3800 may happen (another 6 to 9% rise from here). This is based on looking at Yields double top, Dollar Index double top, VIX double top, HYG (High yield bonds) diverging from SP 500., Russell 2000 (risk on index) diverging from SP 500, etc
• Most analysts feel that the final bottom that has been talked about may happen now. There is a 60% chance of that. If it falls, SP 500 could fall to somewhere between 3100 and 3400 - a figure spoken for last 6 months. First test would be 3400 and very likely bottoming around 3250 (another 6 to 10% fall from here). This is based on market breath indicators and previous patterns, including fundamentals
• There is a good chance that it may go lower in short term, whether we have a short bounce or not. So most analysts calling to be defensive at this stage and wait for a final bottom
• There is a small but viable probability that we may have seen the final bottom of October by reaching 3491 on SP 500 on Thursday. That means we could just go higher and test levels of 3900 and 4150 first
• Markets are still very volatile and these are just my understanding, I could be wrong, so please dyor.

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Personally - I am two-thirds invested. I have still not decided what to do, Monday's action on ASX/DOW will see. After selling two weeks back and buying last week, I have around 13% buffer (I was able to buy back at 13% less) - so have a little buffer in my trading stocks. I will see if I want to risk the bounce or reduce and wait for final bottom.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:

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Figures for US Li stocks:
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Rise from June Bottom:
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