MLS (ASX) MLS Weekly Report

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 16th Dec 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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Diary - There is no Diary again this week, sorry. I had to do a lot of chopping, moving etc. I am very nimble and volatile, hence anything I hold could be temporary, hence that is not much point. Once markets stabilise, I will have my Diary.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 54 stocks.
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Overall for this week - General Markets - SP 500 - This has been my common theme around SP 500 for some time - One of the things I have been repeatedly saying for couple of months is that we may reach 4100, but what will happen after that, I don't know. We needed to go above to have a bull trend but there was a big likelihood of going down. Unfortunately we seem to be going down. We have now lost 5.5% after reaching 4100 and making double top and are now at 3852.
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Overall for this week - Li stocks - Li sector looking weakest after June bottom. Many reports etc have spooked punters further along with overall general market not going in right direction. Last week we lost 6%. This week another 9% across 54 stocks. So big losses last 2 weeks. The big stocks, the leaders of our sector look like they are in a mini collapse - many have fallen around 30-40% in just few weeks, so billions of dollars wiped out. The small to mid-caps are struggling under this weight. The big hope is that stocks have already fallen so much, it may be in anticipation of markets falling further. So lot may already be priced in. I have a feeling that if SP 500 falls another 15% which many analysts are calling, stocks may not fall that much - 10-20% range I am thinking, but please dyor as markets are very volatile.
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Next week SP 500 and other indicators path:
We are now in decline. Bears have taken control - Last 2 weeks - 3.3% and 2.2% - fall - total 5.5%
For next week - for positive - regain 3900, then 3960 and so on. For negative, 3810 to hold, next 3750. After that bottom of 3500 is in danger.
Lead indicator have not collapsed, in fact they made some positive numbers from a bullish perspective. Yields, Dollar Index and VIX all have fallen in last few weeks. This is the hope that if lead indicators are still good, stocks may rally at some stage. In fact on Friday VIX fell though SP dropped - pointing towards a possible bounce early next week
Within 2 weeks the Sentiment Indicator has moved from Greed to Fear - so not looking good
No major economic drive for next week.
Only thing is that so many people have become pessimistic and shorting the market that sometimes market does not want to give easy money. So there may be some turbulence, dead cat bounces, but overall still looking weak
The number I have been talking about for 4-5 months now is a final bottom around 3100/3400 (average 3250). Some are also calling for lower, around 2800, but many fell early 3ks might hold as final bottom. This can happen in Q1 or Q2 of next year, hopefully Q1 so that we can get this necessary evil out as early.
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.Personally: As I have been writing after 4100 on SP 500 did not hold and formed a double top, I have gone defensive. Last week I was 25% cash. This week I am 50% cash. Got out of a number of stocks and rotated some to other sectors (a good number of oil/gas), main criteria of choosing which stock to move - if it is on a good run and looking good for short term. Watching markets to see when to buy back all my stocks that I have sold.
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.Stock specific Info:
MLS needs to stay within this range. If overall market and Li sector tank further, there is a chance we may drift towards early 4s. Good chance we may hold that. But we reached 3.6 in early Nov, something to keep in mind. Hopefully we get some good news and we don't have to think about it.
Going up - get above big barrier at 5.6 and start trading in 6s
Both the general markets and Li sector pullback is not helping the cause
I have exited most of my trading positions, not only here but many other Li stocks and waiting for market direction

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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.Rise from June Bottom:
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