MML possible target 40 cents, page-35

There was always the potential the guidance would be met, regardless of the price decline in the last couple of weeks. OGC was also quite weak and in a multi year down trend until early 2014. A surprisingly strong qtrly changed that very quickly and the stock better than doubled to reach its 2012 high and was not too far off its 2011 high. The charts or markets don't always predict a good or bad qtr result. You could just as easily have told me to short OGC in late 2013 ealy 2014 as it was also in a multi year down trend.

MML had a decent rally after June from below 1.60 to around 2.00 later in June and again in July. Yes the price starting dropping again a few weeks before the qtrly and some interpreted that to mean the qtrly would be poor but I've seen plenty of cases where that kind of decline proves to wrong.

I think MML looked like a far safer short (or at the very least sell any remaining longs) in the 1.60's after the qtrly was released. You wouldn't have had to get caught short in the rally to $2, not knowing if some good news would amplify your losses as would have happened if you shorted OGC before its Dec qtr results while it was still weak.