Medusa is well undervalued based on known H1 and Q3 results and...

Medusa is well undervalued based on known H1 and Q3 results and forecast Q4 results giving FY profit around US$52 million, with a forward EPS of US 26-27c (A 33.4c) for a P/E ratio of around 2.6.

So the sp could rise by 3x or 4x from here and still have a lowish EPS with further progress expected in the next full year starting in July when the production ramp up should continue to the likely range of 130 - 140k oz with an expected huge further increase in profitability even if gold remains around the $1200 mark as now.

***** The Co-O budget for 2015/16 financial year is currently in preparation and the production guidance for next year will be announced during the current quarter. (ie this month) *****

Forecast H2 production and FY outcome based on:

Q3 production of 23.9k oz (actual) and

Q4 production of 30.1k oz due to increased supply of ore to Co-O mill from L8 shaft capacity increase from 13/1/2015.

FY production: 102,000 oz (guidance 95 - 100k oz).

Description.......... Unit...........H2 14/15.... H1 14/15.... H1 2013

Production......... ounces........54,000........ 47,877....... 26,089
Cash costs......... US$/oz..........$381........... $381......... $422
Gold sold.......... ounces......... 54,000.........50,682....... 27,334
Gold price received US$/oz....$1,200........ $1,234....... $1,304
Gold price received US$/oz....$1,200........ $1,234....... $1,304
Revenues ...............US$........$64.8 M..... $62.2 M....... $34.0 M
EBITDA ..................US$.......................... $39.9 M....... $19.4 M
NPAT .....................US$.........$27.0 M.... $24.8 M....... $13.0 M
EPS(basic) ............ US$.........$0.139....... $0.128........ $0.067

FY 14/15 NPAT estimate: $51.8 M

FY EPS: US 26.7c (A 33.4c @  average A$1.25 to US$1)
Share price: A 87c
P/E ratio: 2.6