HSP, good observation. But let's consider several OZ goldies against the metric underlying your calculation (i.e. price/earnings ratio).
Price=94 cents
EPS FY15=20cps (Thomson/Reuters consensus of 7 brokers)
P/E = 4.7 (FY16 P/E estimate is currently 3.13)
Compare with current FY15 P/E ratios of other OZ goldies (Thomson/Reuters consensus):*
NCM=31 (and FY16-19.7 -- still not cheap!)
NST=8.6
RRL=11.5
EVN=10.6
BDR=5.85
OGC=10.1 (but FY14 PE=6.0)
*NOTE: P/E stats for these comparison firms likely use share prices earlier this week, so would be higher now. MML's P/E ratio based on Wednesday's price.
Conservatively, MML should have a sp of around 8x or 9x earnings in this sector's de-rated environment and would possibly be 12x earnings when the market has a neutral sentiment toward the sector. Therefore, MML's current sp relative to the sector RIGHT NOW should be $1.60 to $1.80 (i.e. 20cps X 8 or 9)
MML's current low price can't be explained by all-in costs (i.e. risk is gold price falls). MML's all-in costs are $900 to $1000 (MML statement in Nov14), whereas others costs range from about $800 (OGC) to $1150 (NST). Furthermore, MML's all-in costs have the highest "sustaining capex" costs among OZ goodies (about $400/oz vs less than $150/oz for most others), almost certainly due to its costly redevelopment. My belief is that sustaining costs will fall to the average over the next year or so as production ramps up and annual capex costs fall considerably. Thus, my guess is MML's all-in costs will fall below $800 and maybe to $700 over he next year or two.
See my earlier post of MML's costs, PE, etc vs other goldies:
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann....2431018/page-3?post_id=14513020#.VL_kSsYz4Q4
As always, please DYOR. Junior gold miners are risky investments.
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