Binwood Welcome on board this long standing doggie. Some of us...

First 7 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
loki01

11,149 Posts.

644

07/06/19

16:02

Post #: 38964310
Share

Originally posted by binwood ↑

MML is trading at an EV of $66m assuming no cash build in the current quarter.

Based on guidance of 100koz +/- and midpoint AISC of $1,100/oz that gives EBITDA of US$20m or A$28m (with POG at $1,300). So currently trading at 2.35x EBITDA.

If POG moves to retest $1,350 in this move that increases EBITDA roughly 25% so a meaningful change.

This operation has a proven track record and is ticking away even though operations aren't perfect.

If they can increase mill throughput from 60% to 70% that increases output 16% and possibly increases AISC slightly.

As a potential upside we could see MML producing 115koz at $1,050 with gold at $1,350. Then we are talking A$49m in EBITDA. Even if we retained 2.35x as an EV that would be $132m MC or 63c/share.

I think there are a number of ways to skin the analysis that says this could move 50% to the upside.

Expand

Binwood

Welcome on board this long standing doggie. Some of us have been sitting here for a long time since the 20s or 30s cent levels just to see if there is any pulse in it. I hope it gets new management that give it proper direction and a lower AISC, especially via higher production.

I presume this is just a misstatement and ASIC will actually be lower with rising production.

"If they can increase mill throughput from 60% to 70% that increases output 16% and possibly increases AISC slightly."

loki

MML Price at posting: 46.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

LTR

Liontown locks in $266M placement to help cashflow, Kathleen Valley ramp-up

Oz will likely unveil commodity price supports, but don't expect Trumpian flare

MQR

'We're extremely encouraged': Marquee expands footprint at Mt Clement

Thursday's HotCopper trends: $266M LTR placement, Trigg expansion | Aug 7

ETM

As Trump-Greenland hype dies off, Energy Transition buys a niobium project in Spain

First 7 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

Binwood Welcome on board this long standing doggie. Some of us...

Top Stories

Liontown locks in $266M placement to help cashflow, Kathleen Valley ramp-up

Oz will likely unveil commodity price supports, but don't expect Trumpian flare

'We're extremely encouraged': Marquee expands footprint at Mt Clement

Thursday's HotCopper trends: $266M LTR placement, Trigg expansion | Aug 7

As Trump-Greenland hype dies off, Energy Transition buys a niobium project in Spain

Featured News