I think Fabian and the team could learn a bit from this,...

I think Fabian and the team could learn a bit from this, especially in how they communicate with the market.
I don't think they are communicating the Marley Spoon story very well over the last 6 months.

Here are some highlights from the commentary that I feel have been overlooked:

We have since seen a recovery in base behaviour and improved customer acquisition costs. Given these factors, Q4 net revenue growth is trending higher than Q3 2021 and the PCP. The overall structural growth trend for online groceries remains intact and gives us confidence that we will continue to sustain high growth rates at attractive unit economics.

We are also encouraged by our margin trajectory, having improved operational contribution margin quarter over quarter, with progressive improvement within Q3. These gains are driven primarily by improvements in our US operations and the successful implementation of price increases toward the end of Q3. This positive trajectory is expected to continue in Q4.

In Q3 2021 we continued to invest in people, processes, and infrastructure that were necessary after doubling our business in 2020 and that will lay the foundation for further growth in 2022. These investments were balanced with disciplined investment in marketing, but also resulted in negative
Operating EBITDA of €(13m).

In Q4 we expect continued revenue growth and expanded margins to lead to a significantly lower level of Operating EBITDA losses vs. Q3.


We know from the Q2 presentation that 2021F was the big year for investing in CAPEX.
They were projected 20m spend and have already spent 17.2m, so expecting lower investment this quarter (2.8m?).
Then next year it drops back to 16m as I understand it (was an error in original presentation.






I think they need to come up with a strategy to capture more of the growth available, as Hello Fresh is capturing too much of it in our key markets, when there isn't significant differences in the product.

If you need a refresher on the opportunity in the sector, listen to the video from Nick Griffin from Munro Partners below talking about Hello Fresh below. Often these guys like to focus on their being only 1 winner in a sector, but the reality Monster beverages is worth billions, so is Pepsi, it's not like Coke is the only beverage out there. Nick doubled down on his thesis on Hello Fresh in a recent podcast interview on LiveWire Markets The Rules of Investing.

Basically if you believe there will be a transition to online grocery shopping over the next decade, Marley Spoon is well placed across its global footprint to capture a small chunk of the largest market in the world (ie: groceries).