Look, we will know the outcome in about in about 6 - 8 months....

Look, we will know the outcome in about in about 6 - 8 months.

If one seriously reads the annual report, it is very clear that MMX intents to wait until the new Oakajee consortium is formed before entering into serious negotiations about asset or corporate level transaction.

This is a smart move. It's just common sense.

Once a committment is made by China and Japan to develop Oakajee, then JHEP is derisked.

When JHEP is derisked, it will be flogged off at the prevailing global IO M&A price.

Now....see cut & paste from SDL Post #: 7297655


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Ferrous: 4.6 Bt @ 33% Fe = approx. 1.52 Billion tonnes of Fe
--> BHP will pay $6 billion

This means $6 billion / 1.52 billion tonnes = $3.95 per tonne being paid.

http://www.ferrous.com.br/index.php/pagina/view/12/12

Sundance: 521.7 million tonnes @ 60.7% Fe High Grade Hematite

2.3 billion tonnes @ 38% Fe Itabirite Hematite

= 0.312 + 0.874 = approx 1.18 Billion tonnes of Fe

Therefore, to break even with Brazil = 1.18 Billion tonnes x $3.95 per tonne = $4.661 Billion market cap

$4.661 Billion x 80% (SDL's share in CamIron etc) = $3.729 Billion market cap

$3.729 Billion minus 10% risk premium for being in Africa instead of Brazil = $ 3.356 billion market cap

$3.356 billion /2.97 billion shares = $1.13 per share

Going on this analogy, a "BHP bid" on SDL would net shareholders $1.13 per share.

NOTE: BOTH companies need to build their own rail and port.

For good measure, lets take off another 30%, say because the DFS is more than Ferrous' (Even though Ferrous dont even have a DFS! - see their timeline - it doesnt even mention one, however, I will concede any experienced mining engineer going over the project economics and topography can see that it is a robust project).

1.13 * 70% = $ 0.79 per share.

A fully discounted $0.79 "BHP bid" still exceeds Hanlong's $0.57 bid.

Therefore, any conservative bid could still net up to 79 cents per share - which is still a 38% premium over the current bid.

Bring on BHP I say!

Foxtrot