For the potential upside, you should read chuk's posts. Those...

For the potential upside, you should read chuk's posts. Those are very detailed and contain well backed up calculations.

I have nothing to offer in terms of potential upside, so I may just say what I think on the risk side.

Not all prospectors become producers. So far Minbos is very close to becoming a producer, after all those years. However, there are growing concerns that it might fall short on its promises. Production date keeps shifting into the future, so there is now a real risk of the company not producing in time for the planting season starting from Oct next year.

Also, this company has terrible management team (this is only my opinion, who don't agree, can just agree to disagree and move on, not interested in debating on this point). People here often quote Warren Buffett, but he would never invest in a company with this calibre of management. What's the impact of a terrible management team on sp? I don't know, but one thing is that it will mess up your planning with the stock (when to enter, when to exit). For example, a few here must have banked on the fact that first production was early 2022, late 2022, late 2023, Q1 2024, and now H1 2024, and planned their purchase accordingly with certain exit points in mind. With delays, all those plans got messed up. Also, with a management team like this, SHs may get surprises at the last minute, as they don't seem to have a clear and well laid out game plan from the get go, but keep making adhoc changes along the way. In 2021, they changed the product type at the last minute which delayed the DFS. This year, despite having secured a term sheet of 25m usd over a year ago, they again last minute changed to different type of funding with the claim that it is "better for SHs". Well maybe, but that good intention for SHs should have been considered from 1 year ago and pursued 1 year ago, not now. Last minute changes like this are considered a big no no in the corporate world. We have the concept of "proper planning" to avoid that sort of things. If the original terms were shit, why was it secured in the first place? To ease our boiling souls?
last but probably most significant risk is the sales risk. Right now we have a binding MoU with Carrinho which they are trying to convert to sales agreement, but it does look like it's still a long way to go (otherwise they would be waiting for it!). In the case of Minbos, MoU doesn't mean much (proof being the financing MoU with cornerstone investor!). Without the formal sales agreement, if MNB can't sell due to any reason, DFS numbers are meaningless.

Having said all that, if things go well, you are looking for multiples from here (for the target sp, read chuk's posts). There high uncertainty lies in the "when". The next major de-risking points are funding and sales agreement. If you wait, upside might be lower, but it will be much less risky.