IMHO either there is no deal or a brinksmanship game being...

IMHO either there is no deal or a brinksmanship game being played to see who blinks first.

You can only afford to play brinkmanship if you have a fall-back. If you play brinkmanship without a fall-back, you lose even worse when your bluff is called.

So, possible scenarios:

1. There is no deal and no fall-back or other plan;
2. They are playing brinksmanship and MSB has no fall-back;
3. They are playing brinksmanship and MSB have a strong hand with a fall-back that becomes apparent after exclusivity period ends if no deal; or
4. There is a deal and they are icing the publicity cake.

If scenario 3 or 4 plays out and there is a good announcement - SP will head north past $3 very quickly.

If scenarios 1 or 2 play out and there is no announcement by or shortly after the exclusivity period ends, the only scenario left is 1. If that is the case, my view is that the market will collectively lose a great deal confidence in MSB and the SP will plunge south of $1 and keep going!

Either way, I think we'll find out where it is headed pretty soon. My bet - well I'm not holding atm!