Model Monday

Assumptions all in US$
* Cash at bank as of the Dec qtr 2014= 45mio
* Remaining capex to complete power upgrade: $25mio
* 95% owned by TGS NOW
* Average spot copper 2015 at $2.85 or $6,270/t
* All in Sustaining Costs at $1.50
So multiply that out:
28,000t x $6,270t x 47%(deduct costs) x 95% (prorata on TGS ownership of Kipoi) = $78.4 mio free cash
28,500t = 79.8 mio free cash
29,000t = 81.2 mio free cash
29,500t = 82.6 mio free cash
30,000t (theoretical maximum) = 84 mio free cash

At an average copper spot price of $3.00 then the following occurs:

28kt = 87.8mio
28.5kt = 89.3mio
29kt = 91mio
29.5kt = 92.5mio
30kt = 94mio

Gerard repayments for 2015 are circa 53mio, add to this the capex for power distribution assumed at 25mio, and interest on Taurus debt and new debt consolidation costs of say 7mio. We are talking total costs 2015 of finance and principle repayments, and remaining capex before Phase 2 of 85mio. This cost is mostly serviced by the SXEW production in 2015. Therefore the cash at bank assumption above could be critical. This could mean by this time next year, a net debt position of btw 50-60mio, or debt free by Q3 2016.

The key variables:

How low can the get All in sustaining costs
What is the average spot copper price in 2015
How hard can they push SXEW production, can they get above 28kt
What will be the Cash at bank position in Dec14 qtr

If all come good, then we can forget valuations under 40c by this time next year, we then see for the first time ac creative transformative share value growth.

Gltah