This is what I see as the fundamentals of GXY in the year 2021
*assuming SDV first production late 2019 with ramp up over the following 18 months, consistent with SQM/LAC-Cauchari ramp up time estimates
*prices of LCE and spodumene based on Deutsche Bank long term pricing model (JL says all analysts in Lithium pricing don't know what they're doing besides Deutsche Bank)
*James Bay deliberately left out as buffer against any CR dilution, FX movements
*Tax credits used up before 2021, so paying taxes as usual in year 2021
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
| 1 |
Calendar Year |
2021 |
| 2 |
SDV |
|
| 3 |
LCE production tonnes |
35,000 |
| 4 |
Price per tonne |
12,000 |
| 5 |
Operating Cost per tonne |
3,000 |
| 6 |
EBITDA (USD) |
315,000,000 |
| 7 |
AUDUSD |
0.77 |
| 8 |
EBITDA (AUD) |
409,090,909 |
| 9 |
Attributable to GXY (100%) |
409,090,909 |
| 10 |
Interest (100m debt) |
10,000,000 |
| 11 |
Depreciation |
1,740,000 |
| 12 |
Taxes @ 30% |
119,205,273 |
| 13 |
NPAT (AUD) |
278,145,636 |
| 14 |
EPS of SDV (1946m shares) |
0.143 |
| 15 |
|
|
| 16 |
Mt Cattlin |
|
| 17 |
Spodumene tonnes |
225,000 |
| 18 |
Price per tonne |
550 |
| 19 |
Operating Cost per tonne (USD) |
320 |
| 20 |
EBITDA (USD) |
51,750,000 |
| 21 |
AUDUSD |
0.77 |
| 22 |
EBITDA (AUD) |
67,207,792 |
| 23 |
Interest AUD (USD 40m debt) |
3,636,364 |
| 24 |
Depreciation |
344,148 |
| 25 |
Taxes @ 30% |
18,968,184 |
| 26 |
NPAT (AUD) |
44,259,096 |
| 27 |
EPS of Mt Cattlin |
0.023 |
| 28 |
|
|
| 29 |
Total EPS |
0.166 |
| 30 |
PE |
12.00 |
| 31 |
Target SP |
1.99 |
This is my view, please DYOR, but follow fundamentals as the history doesn't tell you anything.
The future is key. The trend is your friend and right now electric vehicles and electric storage systems have just started to trend.
Seeking Alpha sees a 2020 price of A$2.32, so that makes me look like pessimist. So don't bark at me if my TP is lower than yours.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3983653-galaxy-resources-excellent-way-invest-lithium-miners
