Have attempted to model 'good' scenario where Sillaro performs as expected based on key events to PVE in next 18 months and the cash/debt position that results. Have not modelled unusual costs in here so is a 'vanilla' scenario. Also assumes Castello corrective drill in 2011 is succesful. Will attempt to model 'bad' scenario when i get the chance. Please correct any mistakes!
On this scenario, even by December this year this don't look too bad at all.....
Starting Base: Jun 30th 2010 Cash: 2,480 Debt: 7,000 -------------------- Sept 10 - Quarterly production : Approx 9.4 million cubic metres. (9 million Sillaro / 0.4 million Castello) - Quarterly sales: 9.4m * 0.30 Euros = 2.8 million - Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.4 million(estimated based on quarterlies - less setup costs but more admin) - Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion (assumed split repayment to meet 5,000 target end of 2010)
Sept Position: Cash: 2,900 Debt: 6,000 ------------------------------- Dec 10 - Quarterly production : Approx 9.6 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 0.3 million Castello) - Quarterly sales: 9.6m * 0.30 Euros = 2.9 million - Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.6 million(estimated based on quarterlies + Corregio) - Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion (assumed split repayment to meet 5,000 target end of 2010)
Dec Position: Cash: 3,200 Debt: 5,000
-------------------------------- Mar 11 - Quarterly production : Approx 9.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 0.2 million Castello) - Quarterly sales: 9.5m * 0.30 Euros = 2.9 million - Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.4 million(estimated based on quarterlies) - Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion
Mar Position: Cash: 3,700 Debt: 4,000 -------------------------------- Jun 11 - Quarterly production : Approx 9.3 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / zero Castello - shutdown) - Quarterly sales: 9.3m * 0.30 Euros = 2.8 million - Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.8 million(extra startup cost) - Quarterly Debt repayment: 0.5 milion (expect to pay down less with Castello spend) - Potential 2.5 million Castello spend
Jun Position: Cash: 1,700 Debt: 3,500
-------------------------------- Sept 11 - Quarterly production : Approx 13.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 4.2 mill Castello) - Quarterly sales: 13.5m * 0.30 Euros = 4 million - Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.5 million(estimated based on quarterlies) - Quarterly Debt repayment: 1.5 milion
Sept Position: Cash: 2,700 Debt: 2,000
-------------------------------- Dec 11 - Quarterly production : Approx 13.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 4.2 mill Castello) - Quarterly sales: 13.5m * 0.30 Euros = 4 million - Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.5 million(estimated based on quarterlies) - Quarterly Debt repayment: 2 milion
Dec Position: Cash: 3,200 Debt: 0
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Extrapolated 2012 income: 16 million Extrapolated 2012 costs : 5 million Extrapolated 2012 profit: 11 million
Current market cap: $28million AUD 2012 profit: $15million AUD i.e. approx 50% current market cap. (excludes eg setup of new plant etc for other fields which should be happening by then... so should be funded by this cashflow).
PVE Price at posting:
25.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
