Have attempted to model 'good' scenario where Sillaro performs...

Have attempted to model 'good' scenario where Sillaro performs as expected based on key events to PVE in next 18 months and the cash/debt position that results. Have not modelled unusual costs in here so is a 'vanilla' scenario. Also assumes Castello corrective drill in 2011 is succesful. Will attempt to model 'bad' scenario when i get the chance. Please correct any mistakes!

On this scenario, even by December this year this don't look too bad at all.....



Starting Base: Jun 30th 2010
Cash: 2,480
Debt: 7,000
--------------------
Sept 10
- Quarterly production : Approx 9.4 million cubic metres. (9 million Sillaro / 0.4 million Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 9.4m * 0.30 Euros = 2.8 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.4 million(estimated based on quarterlies - less setup costs but more admin)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion (assumed split repayment to meet 5,000 target end of 2010)

Sept Position:
Cash: 2,900
Debt: 6,000
-------------------------------
Dec 10
- Quarterly production : Approx 9.6 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 0.3 million Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 9.6m * 0.30 Euros = 2.9 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.6 million(estimated based on quarterlies + Corregio)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion (assumed split repayment to meet 5,000 target end of 2010)

Dec Position:
Cash: 3,200
Debt: 5,000

--------------------------------
Mar 11
- Quarterly production : Approx 9.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 0.2 million Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 9.5m * 0.30 Euros = 2.9 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.4 million(estimated based on quarterlies)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion

Mar Position:
Cash: 3,700
Debt: 4,000
--------------------------------
Jun 11
- Quarterly production : Approx 9.3 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / zero Castello - shutdown)
- Quarterly sales: 9.3m * 0.30 Euros = 2.8 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.8 million(extra startup cost)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 0.5 milion (expect to pay down less with Castello spend)
- Potential 2.5 million Castello spend

Jun Position:
Cash: 1,700
Debt: 3,500

--------------------------------
Sept 11
- Quarterly production : Approx 13.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 4.2 mill Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 13.5m * 0.30 Euros = 4 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.5 million(estimated based on quarterlies)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 1.5 milion


Sept Position:
Cash: 2,700
Debt: 2,000

--------------------------------
Dec 11
- Quarterly production : Approx 13.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 4.2 mill Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 13.5m * 0.30 Euros = 4 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.5 million(estimated based on quarterlies)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 2 milion


Dec Position:
Cash: 3,200
Debt: 0

---------------------------------


Extrapolated 2012 income: 16 million
Extrapolated 2012 costs : 5 million
Extrapolated 2012 profit: 11 million

Current market cap: $28million AUD
2012 profit: $15million AUD i.e. approx 50% current market cap. (excludes eg setup of new plant etc for other fields which should be happening by then... so should be funded by this cashflow).