Dear blueballs
the 1:10 or 10% rule is an old rule of thumb.
You should better apply the statistics of the 154 ( but do not nailed me down because I do not remember if it was exact this number) exploration wells in Africa and there we have only 6 % of the wells ( I am pretty sure with this number) which ended up with a commercial production.
So if you bet on a dry well you have a good chance to win.
Myself I enjoy the fun and happiness of discovering a gusher much more.
Moderated, page-6
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