And from HartleysA more detailed note will be out shortly but...

And from Hartleys


A more detailed note will be out shortly but here are the main points:
• 52 metres of net pay
o To be able to determine net pay, something has to be known about porosity – we can infer that porosity is good (pre drill expectation 20-25%)
• Reservoir and fluid parameters to be known as analysis is complete
• Aerial closure not disclosed (pre-drill the expectation was 179km2 for the entire structure) – we assume that it may be half of this (but this is a guess)
• Gas composition not disclosed (i.e. any liquids, CO2) – we assume that the gas is similar to that found to the south (largely dry)
• Formation volume factor (determined by pressure) is also not known

We have made assumptions about the parameters that have not been disclosed and have an estimated recoverable volume of 2-5TCF, with a mid case of 3.5TCF.

This would underpin a valuation of 23cps.

This is very significant as Mbawa is more like a complex than a structure and is likely to grow over time as more wells are drilled into it.

We also now assume that ~25TCF is discovered across L8, L6, L10A and L10B – all of which PCL has exposure to.

Using a 40% chance of success, this implies a valuation of 81cps (with upside to 700cps, 275cps from Kenya).