Hi Guy’s and girls… Here are some bullet points that I wrote...

Hi Guy’s and girls…

Here are some bullet points that I wrote down the other day from listening to Alan Greenspan speak today via a satellite hook-up on the Gold Coast at the Global Business Insights Event held today..

I must say it was an interesting day, the other speakers were good too but I am sure you would be interested in what the MAN had to say on a few things.. This summary is just to give all you out there a view of what Alan Greenspan thinks.. he may not be in charge but remember he still sitting on a pile of access to information we don’t have..

• US Domestic Balance sheets are still within acceptable levels – House Values verses Borrowings.

• US Budgets Deficits if they continue at these rates may come home to roost 2015 – 2020

• Events that we are not aware are the biggest dangers i.e 87 crash they are still not sure what caused it
I was interested in this comment.. if they don’t know what caused still… Then how do we look for the next one????

So now we have a slight correction and a rewieghting, the world is not about to fall in!!!!!


• The Markets only took about 5 weeks to hit bottom after the disengagement from markets after September 11th – Markets showed great resilience to a shook like this..

• Risk is no longer perceived as relevant and may not be fully priced in to market levels at this present time, He does find this worrying.. but he can’t see in to the future so can’t predict how this is going to pan out..

• Thinks that a recession in 2007 is not an issue, seems to think that there is a 1/3 probability that there will be one late 2007 – early 2008.. but this is good as it is better then a ½ probability..

• Paul Crookman has written that the US economy is at a turning point (using latest economic signals).
But Greenspan says signs are always confusing, need to filter the noise, he thinks that the signs are as not as confusing as some think.. you have to take in account that there is no other country in recession at this present time in the Global economy, He has never seen it like this before.. To him the signals are showing benign and stable environment but then again this might be a time to be worried!!!!

• The world stock markets have shown themselves resilient against shocks, the markets should not be interfered with too much as they have to stay flexible and be able to fend off shocks instead of Government policies in place to protect them from shocks.. Even through this train of thought does allow for the markets to have effects on domestic economy in times of stress via interest rates rises and equity prices..

• USA Economy and Balance of accounts.. The Fed does overvalue the items that are used in it in Alan’s view discrepancies are stable and there is no real outstanding items that are at stress levels..


How does this fit in with a company like MPO..
Well T4P has given those that can't be bother to read out side of this forum enough info to make up your own mind.. but like he said.. today is a test of your will and back pocket.. but personally (as I got in early..low 5's) I went in to this company as it has got something of substance behind it..

Yes.. the correction now will knock some wind out of it's sails.. but if you have the money and the balls it just might be the time to buy in...