I could not help but read in today's The Australian online to yet again show just how incompetent and wrong the directors of Arrium have been - and yet again how shareholders who bought shares in this company between 1/7/2015 tp 7/4/2016 have been misled.
When the directors and their advisers (UBS and Lazard) did the roadshow late last year, they had forecast EBITDA of $A287 million for the 2015/2016 financial year - this valued Molycop at around the A$2.10 Billion mark.
KM in its sale material is now forecasting EBITDA to be US$147 million for the 2016/2017 financial year - that equates to the following in Australian dollars - US$147/0.77 = A$190 million. Analysts are forecasting Molycops value at anywhere between 6.5 to 9.5 EBITDA - so assuming it got the highest you have only $1,805 million (that includes the equity value plus debt attached to Molycop) - some have been suggesting debt could be A$400 million (and this will be a new line of credit for working capital NOT debt attached from the old Arrium debt pile of A$2.80 Billion) - so the cash component would be only A$1.40 million. This would leave gross debt left over for Arrium Australia to service and pay off of $1.40 Billion ($2.80 Billion minus A$1.40 Billion)
That means the board got their forecasts out yet again - by - 32.7% per annum (A$287 - $190/$287).
Another example of shareholders being misled and given false hope by self-interested and not very accountable directors.
DISGRACE.
We should know by the end of this Friday whether shareholders will get anything back - and if we don't bring on the KM report and the class action lawsuit - it will be on I can assure you.
ARI Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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