molycorp up more than 7% overnight, page-4

groins wrote: AFU NTA 1/6 of MC
LYC NTA 1/7 of MC
MCP NTA 1/100 of MC
What do you think will happen to other REE companies when their (MCP)bubble pops?

Well, I'm just a Lynashead, no expert. But the Moly bubble was created with the IPO. The "lock box" format is creating the volatility in the stock to some extent. This combined with it's NYSE listing as the only/main US rare earth stock was destined to attract Wall St. traders. Add in the politics and price rise in REE and you get dot com type valuations. As it's turned out (or by scheme) the insiders have made a massive amount of money. Slowly through the lock box they are profit taking. It seems like a bankers manipulation of the markets to me. But I suppose Pegasus Capital would answer with some arrogant defense like "Not my fault I'm going to make a lot of money." Where have I heard that before?:-)

I think for this quarter the entire sector may be slowed by Moly's unlocking like it was in February. But the effect should be much less this quarter and I'd say it is gone as Lynas moves to production. So my overall view is it is a fading story in the REE sector.

For Molycorp the situation is dependant on the creation of fundamentals. If they continue to give press releases with little Phoenix progress, I think it trades with great volatility but fades quarter after quarter. If they get their act together and the insiders release less and less shares the progress could produce earnings to justify the valuations. The latter is a long shot IMO.

What I find more interesting is the LYC and other REE stock valuations. Unlike Moly who is priced to perfection, our stock price and market cap seems to ignore our earnings potential. This is why I'm in Lynas and why I think this stock can catch (and pass) the Moly valuation. The story is just that strong here. And when the earnings come there will be little or no reason to talk about whatever Moly is doing. They will simply be eating our gypsum dust at that point IMO.