molycorp up more than 7% overnight, page-6

So you do think Moly is reasonably priced? That would just imply "all" the others are under valued.
I suppose If I compared Moly (MC $6Bil) to Arufura ( $0.5 Bil)I wont compare LYC (>4bil) because I see them being ahead.Is Moly 12 times more valuable given they are both talking 18-24 months for production and "similar resources"?

I think Moly is overvalued because I think Phoenix is nonsense. I think the completed project will be about 20,000tpa produced in 2014 and lacking HREE. As these things become obvious, Moly will fade and become old news.

This could make Arafura very undervalued. But in Arafura I need to see hardware (same test for Moly/Phoenix). If I do see it in ARU, I'll conclude that Arafura beats Moly/Phoenix and then Arafura is a great buy. But if Moly Phoenix moves near schedule, Arafura is still a good stock but will not get the best long term LREE contracts in the future. Still, ARU has good mid rare earths that are price supportive as well. IMO this is not similar to MCP's very light mine. So Arafura is a good buy. But any monozite or bastaesite mines after LYC, MCP (Phoenix), and ARU are trades at best unless the LREE demand curve strengthens further (always possible).

At this point, Lynas is in a different conversation all together. It is way in front, has a great basket, and has the only advanced integration. It will capture long term contracts well beyond every other rare earth stock. This will allow for growth from top acquisitions as well. The company is so far in front that as it grows in revenue it can further its dominance by scaling up the LAMP and taking further market share. This aggressive approach would make funding difficult for earlier stage projects and that could actually enhance LYC's position. On this basis I am comfortable with a current LYC price target of A$10.00 by the end of 2011, and A$20.00 by the end of 2012 provided there are minimal or no delays to production

Right now we think in terms of demand deficit in REE but that is an older angle (created by China dependence). Time is a key variable as well. The earlier LYC establishes their long term contracts, the more they will get per kg, and the greater percent of the demand curve they will own. That percent of the demand curve is key in a demand based long term contract industry. Once you line up your raw materials in the supply chain, it is not desirable to change supplies. And changing to a new comer is risky at best from a manfacturer's perspective.

Lynas' reliability with it's rich mine, new concentration, and advanced processing will be a big deal to manufacturers. This will translate to market share and revenue in the future. It also will create standards for followers that will be very difficult to meet. All of this will give LYC "best of breed' margins and valuations as well. So it's hard to say how far LYC can go. But we are getting there and some amazing days are ahead in the near future.