momentous ni squeeze coming, page-2

Dolphin,

You're preaching to the converted in general, although I hadn't recognised or seen commentary on one of your short-term factors before:

You are saying current disruption is to production not shipments.

Seems a very significant point, as the drawdown of supply chain inventory is probably a large multiple of the frequently quoted LME inventory (which I consider to be low enough to be irrelevant). Do you know of any data that tracks production, smelter/refinerer and pre-shipment inventories?

Whilst being very bullish on pon, I must say I am wary predictions of prices such as USD25/lb, and certainly would expect any such spikes to be brief.

EL