ftse up 80 what do we think of amp at 7.00, page-2

I haven't seen anywhere that AMP has published details of the hedge. It could expose then to major risk in a rising market a la some of the goldies.

As a derivatives trader I don't care whether a stock goes up or down. Most people trade long and see stocks in those terms i.e they're looking for reasons why it MUST go up rather than looking at the reality (ALL recently).

I do my clearest thinking walking the dog and we put in a 6k'er over AMP. Try as I might I see no compelling reason why AMP should rise other than mob psychology that suggests it's had such a momentous fall it has to go up. That might produce a weak spike but the dominant trend is still down.

The board is in disarray, wealth management is a (bad) joke atm and there are dire predictions coming out of the UK about their insurance and banking sectors and ultimately the whole market.

The brand has been sullied by what's gone on and the insto's must be totally peed off. They move the market, not the mums and dads.

Bottom line. We may be at the low but probability says no. But even if we are it'll probably drag a long the bottom until either:
1. The FTSE shows clear signs of recovery
2 Board and management show that they're getting on top of their problems
3. The Iraq question is resolved and all stocks get aggressively bought.

3 is the most likely but then there will be better buys than AMP anyway.

Extra bottom line. T'd rather short any rise than go long looking for one.

Just my thoughts and the market seems to enjoy making a fool out if me more often than not.