Not wanting to put a dampener on your expectations, or be aggressively negative about your outlook, but your post just highlights why you guys may need to actually look at your source of information before you commit capital to a view. Don't take this the wrong way, I just wanted to highlight how easily it is for someone to believe what they hear from the general media, where it is quite obviously the exact opposite.
"Estimates for the US unemployment numbers were known well before the official numbers were released"
You're wrong there. The market expected 375k jobs lost. If the unemployment numbers were well known, the market would have expected 475k instead of 375k. To pretend that you knew it would come in at 475k instead of 375k is laughable, otherwise you would have been short to the hilt before the official announcement.
"And tonight Alcoa is unlikely to report good numbers as their main customer (car and plane manufactures) are not looking too flash. However, this is kind of already known"
Again, the numbers are forecasting -34 cents. If you think its already known, then you can bet your last dollar if it comes in at -34 cents, the market should buy Alcoa. I for one am expecting it to actually beat expectations, but to lower its guidance. Which is actually worse. No one really knows what the outlook is going to be, but like you say, I'm backing on the fact that car/planes downturn will affect its forward earnings a lot more than the market expects it. To assume that any bad news in Alcoa's report is already factored in, is folly.
"Though, if there is indeed a 'green shoot' out there, then it is the manufacturing index also realeased tonight. And estimates point towards an improvement."
Again, you are wrong. There is NO manufacturing index released tonight. In fact it is the NON-manufacturing index due out, with the expectation of 46 versus last month's at 44. It means that they are expecting a slight improvement within the services index, not manufacturing. Furthermore, we don't know if last month's reading at 44 will be revised lower or not. No one does. Not even the big boys, all they can do is forecast, which is what we're playing with at the moment....a forecast. (Bearing in mind any ISM read under 50 shows contraction, not growth)
No insult or offence intended, just a note to show you how wrong your assumptions are, and how easy it is to listen to media and your peers and to come to a wrong conclusion.
(20min delay)