monday meanderings, page-105

bringiton

We are not going to be in a bear market forever, as you suggest.

It is only likely to be about 8 to 10 more years in the US but much less here if history is a guide.

You make a good point about intervention, in that I think that perhaps there is some awareness about key dates and so when to act.

I felt the Aug 2007 low action was right on a potential crash date, but I suspect action can just alter which is the lowest low rather than end a bear market.

The prediction last year was for an 85% decline in Chinese markets into about now so intervention is coming near the target.

Commodity markets had a huge surge and the decline, while vicious in price is too short in time to be over.

I suspect the peak has been seen in commodities and like 1980 onward we will see every rally declared a new bull for the next 20 years.

There is no bull like a commodity bull, they can never admit its over.

The equity bear will not be one directional of course or we would be at negative numbers soon. I believe a great bull will reappear next decade when all have given up hope and be as great as any 17 year bull period of the past.

I am amazed by those that suggest that China and India have a population that aspires to a car and a fancy house and travel and the other trappings of wealth so that they must achieve all that.

Funny thing is, I suspect everyone in Australia aspires to billionaire status with a ocean going cruiser and multiple residences and no work requirements. I don't see it here yet.

But of course the consensus is that in Chindia it most come true in the short term.