monday meanderings, page-54

Danube

Not sure TA is "screwed" by intervention per se, and surely using history as a guide is in fact TA, or it is to me.

IF TA was so perfect that you could nail every wiggle then any individual could be a billionaire in a week and own the world in a month.

Momentum aspects are working fine, as are many timing measures.

From the timing side, in the week before Oct 10, I pointed out that about 18 times in the last 100 years in the US where that date was a very important turn, and so it proved to be once again.

Oct 27 +/- a trading day was the likely end of the panic down based on Carolan's panic model and was so far.

I had Oct 6 as a possible US low, and it was the bottom of the biggest 2 day down move since 1987. It wasn't a new low though and that has meaning perhaps.

I thought this rally would probably be a zigzag up so a slight new rally high MAY happen before going a bit lower, although one day up after 900+ pts down was hardly unexpected.

The point is that momentum studies are acting beautifully and most dates have been significant.

The thing about dates for me is that it is what you do if the market moves in the correct direction into them, NOT as much playing into them.

I mean if dates are achieved in the way they are expected then you are in a good place to position an order out of the date. I find that safer than having an order well before a date and expecting it to hit.