Based upon the March 16 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the April 2007 expiration is currently pricing in a 2 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 5-1/4 percent to 5 percent at the FOMC meeting on March 21 (versus a 98 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary Table
March 14: 98% for No Change versus 2% for -25 bps.
March 15: 98% for No Change versus 2% for -25 bps.
March 16: 98% for No Change versus 2% for -25 bps.
March 19:
March 20:
March 21: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
SFA chance of rate change . the fed fund futures probability hasnt been wrong in a few years , see no reason for that to change .
hows the pile of turds going gann
profits not prophets
............ the usual wry smile
monday spi, page-26
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