XJO 0.12% 7,768.8 s&p/asx 200

Voltaire,If you accept that things grow over time, markets,...

  1. 423 Posts.
    Voltaire,

    If you accept that things grow over time, markets, investments, whatever, in the sense of growing at 12% per year, the simplest way to describe this mathematically is as an exponential function y=exp(rt), where r=growth rate, t=time.

    Take the log of this (LN really), and you see that LN(y)=rt. So on a logarithmic scale, a straight line of a particular slope is the same thing as a growth curve on a linear chart, with the same growth rate.

    My suggestion of plotting a family of growth curves on the linear plot may be difficult to think about for the less mathematically inclined, but on a semi-log chart, you can achieve the same thing using straight lines.

    That's the key point, that straight lines with slope r on a semi log plot are the same as GROWTH curves with growth rate r on a linear plot.

    Over long periods of time, in my mind, this is the only sensible way to do it. Simple illustration of why - 100 points on the DOW is about 1% now, but back in 1929 it was approximately 100%
 
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