monday, page-29

I cant see a 1929 scenario given the bric countries underlying demand and globalisation. China and India will have recessions and bubbles etc but they are starting to grow in an industrial sense. As for 1987, interest rates were above 12% and there wasn't a preceding 50% total market decline only 15 months earlier. We may get back to the old lows but as Volt said it may take till 2013. So a double dip is unlikely imo in the medium term.

Personally I think we are just at the beginning of the greatest commodity boom the world has ever seen.

US population = 300m, area 9m km2

China + India = 2.5b people, area 13m km2

Different scale all together with no doubt massive volatility along the way :) The scary thing is the US has taken a fair chunk of the commodities already. Inflation should see us pillage the rest though and that is why China has reps in Australia and the rest of the world buying into resource companies. The paper money means nothing but the finite commodities are priceless.