A wee while since i last posted with a LOT of things going on in...

A wee while since i last posted with a LOT of things going on in personal and working life.

Mostly sorted now so back to the Analysis... Yeeee Hah!

Will do a full top Down (monthly through to houlrly) this AM prior to Monday Morning Market open Australian Eastern Standard Time.

And So... onto the Monthly:

M'kay... First up what I beleive to be a high potential Elliot wave count on this index, with the strong suggestion that the decline from October 2007 highs is in the form of 5 waves, with waves as marked from 1 to 4 and the conjecture that price is currently in a 5th wave down.

The wave count conforms to EW general principles... so far... wave three is not the shortest, wave four did not impact on the area of wave 2, wave four was the most "time consuming" that is Price movement per unit of time the least of the current set.
Potentials based on Bill Williams "trading Chaos" book that goes into a bit of detail regarding calculable wave lengths suggests that a fifth wave can be from 62 to 100% of the combined price movement of waves 1 and 3. That's some pretty hard-core potential declines giving a rough downside target range between 2450 odd and 1250 odd... So low tht I have no idea how to contemplate figures like that... so I will just leave those targets alone for now.

Moving onto other stuff on this timespan...
Moving averages
Price is currently dallying around the 21 period moving average on price... it has broken it twice, first two candles back, and the current candle has made a wick below as well.

Past observance on lower timespans related purely to price action in declines has shown that there is a high chance that the first upwards attempt over the 21 period moving average will fail, and this could well be the case here, with the potential of price to once more duck and hold BENEATH the 21 MA

MACD
The gap between teh Fast and slow lines on the MACD is narrowing, as shown both by the current histogram cluster and the location of these two lines.

Price action when the two touch will be significant... I expect as a minimum a shorter timespan price bounce at that stage.. a cross over or kiss n bounce will be interesting either way.



Stochastics
the barely discernable divergence marked a couple of months ago was undeniably a valid signal. Current stoch levels of the signal line are significant as oft a bounce occurs around the 50% stochastic mark after initially falling through from overbought.

The usual though, such a slow timespan to be doing weekly analysis on... but darn interesting for the future Winkinatcha as time in the market plays out.

Now for the Good One... The Weekly (fanfare of trumpets...Marching Girls!...Oyez Oyez.. hmmm I think I have over indulged in the coffee this am!!!)

Big picture view first to give a reasonable compare with the Monthly...

Note how on this weekkly timespan, I have upper targets as marked by the black dotted cross hairs on the left hand side of the chart, which have not been hit...

Lower targets in the range of the thin dotted blue horizontal lines below current price...


Bit more of a close up of the recent historical incline and decline...

The EW based count seems fair for the incline, and I would contend now, that the "flashCrash" low on the first May candle, would fit as wave one of 3 for current price action, giving wave two bein complete at the second last reed candle and wave three of three now underway... Needs to break below the Flash Crash low tho...

Price making a test of the 21 MA two bars ago and failing suggests to me that we are in a confirmed down trend... failure of the Triangle marked pattern to complete to the upside target of 500 odd also adds weight to downtrend speculation on this timespan (in a downtrend, upside based patterns tend to fail to complete targets... opposite in an up trend, where downside patterns tend to fail to meet targets.)

MACD
The elipsed section of the MACD also suggests confirmation of a downtrend on this timespan.

A significan tell I have been waiting for(the bracketed histogram and subsequant bar) unfortunately threw a wooly one on this chart/charting package.  There bar I reckon was bracketed, with the fast line at its lower point and the slow line at its base, was followed by a bar of equal length... dammit... I was relying onthat equal length bar to be longer or shorter than the bracketed bar... shorter would suggest to me upside is about to occur, and trend down will at minimum receive a counter move, or , Longer bar and confirmation odff and expectation of continuation of the downtrend would be my stance.

equal bar... meh... no idea.  I do note two things here though... current bar is significantly greater than previous two... maybe I can get away with that :). and... both slow and fast MACD moving averages are now below the zero line... "normal" MACD analysts suggest that these two lines below the zero line (and pointing down) confirm a downtrendt.

Stochastics...
After the brief cross to the upside on this signal the fast line has now ducked back under the slow, and both of these lines are pointing down.

Suggestion here is that the downside is not yet done.

On the stochastic note... as mentioned in previous posts I am considering that the WEEKLY MACD pattern being played out, is similar to two previous occurrences on the daily... vis:

In both of these DAILY patterns, the downside was not done 'til the stochastics were into the oversold area... On the WEEKLY timespan,with the stochastics stil to get into the oversold area,  I am on not yet convinced that we have finished this pattern nor downtrend












Daily


The daily timespan has been very helpful for the last couple of weeks.

Purely from price action, since April, price has made a lower low and two lower highs... l;ooking for another lower low now seems a fair stance.

Going back to a phenomenon mentioned on the Monthly section, Price has on this daily timespan popped above the 21 period moving average for the first time in the current decline, and failed to hold on this attempt... thes is I beleive, a common price reaction on the first attempt above the 21 period MA in a "real" downtrend.
For future reference, the next price pop and hold above the 21 period moving average will have greater weight for strength in upside.

MACD 
The "bracketed Bar" histogram phenomenon worked well on this timespan, the arrows on the MACD showing the location of histogram bars bracketed by the MACD moving averages, and in these happy examples in both cases the subsequant bar after the bracket suggested that downside would continue. 'twas f lesser magnitude for the Positive bracket and greater magnitude for the negative bracket.

Downside Targets... Histogram based...

Looking back at the chart section in the weekly section... repeated below...

The Red Dotted cross hairs in the middle of the chart, and the blue dotted cross hairs to the left are both valid downside targets based on Divergence on daily histograms.. with the blue bbeing the most extreme histogram (most positive) from the beginning of price ascendacy in March 2009, and the red being the next extreme for conservatism..

The red dotted level show up in the bigger picture daily chart above... and is still to be met by price.

I contend that the blue level is a significant l;evel to be tested, around the 3600 level, however this is personal, and I dont have enough background to add greater weight to it.

I would like to zoom out a lot here and show an interesting thing regarding this level tho...


Another poster mentioned the "three Peaks Domed House" pattern ... this was detailed by Bulkowski and there is a bit of background to it HERE.

As the above link says... getting all carried away on expectations that a very complex pattern will unfold is not super clever... however for fun I have mapped out a rough concept of how this pattern may look on the current SPI price Vis

SHOULD this pattern playout here (and note it is described as a DOW Pattern not "any instrument" pattern)... Point 10 could well be a valid level between the Weekly and Daily Histo targets... Anywas something to watch n tell the grand kiddies about in my dotage.


Anyways.... Back to reality...

Going back to the Larger daily chart n having a look at the stochastics.

As marked on this indicator, there has been a phenomena correlation between tiny divergence signals on the Stochastic and subsequant price movements... This has been a bit of a gift, and long may it keep giving I say.

Just ASSUMING that this indication should continue to perform... I'd like to see another low on price with a higher low on the stochs to bring in another divergent based clue to the upside.. Not happened yet but I wait in anticipation...

Go Daily Chart.. You'r e the Business.. Go Daily Chart.. You're the Business...
 *Winkinatcha performs an interpretive dance titled "Ode to the Daily Chart".. Oooh Yeah Ohh Yeah*

:))))
 ( now you understand why I refer to OTHER MACD analysts as "normal" LOL!)

Now on the whole doomy Gloomy Downside note... I noted on the flash crash, coupled with consternation over the large bar and potential stuffing up of indicaters, that there WAS NO STRONG DIVERGENT buy signal based on MACDs on the daily, sespit the stochastics hint.

Need a lower low on price with a Higher low on the MACD Moving averages...

hasen't happened yet... but we are in a position with price now that we could have a significant new low put in, possibly even in the target areas on price, and STILL have the MACDs forming a higher low.... Should this occur... WITH a stochastic divergence as well... hmmm... truck loading up time in the "near" (perhaps a week) future maybe???

GIMME ANOTHER LOW DAMMIT!

Hourly

Hmmm this timespan has sucked in its noisiness lately...

Current MACD Moving average stuff suggests that if price can get above the 21 MA and hold, then we have upside available... with overnight lows forming a higher high on the moving averages...

so far we have had very little upside in response to the hourly divergences.

The only real interesting thing I can hang my hat on here is the marked expanding downside wedge as per the purple lines... price has conformed remartkbly well to the bounding lines here, and though not shown on the chart...Downside bottom could be around the 400 level if price wants to test there.

I truly dont know from this timespan though... it hs not helped me much at all...

Lower timspans are also showing upside divergence (macd mavs making higher lows, whilst price makes lower lows) from overnight action... 

Conclusion

Larger timespans Daily and up, are yet to significantly suggest that downside is complete and upside is the go...

Intraday timespans are suggesting that upside is available, but failure to significantly satisfy divergence during the latest drops has me doubting the intraday as a pheasible trading help.

As such, I am inclined to beleive that we have potentially the rest of the week for more downside and from that point on, should it occur I will be trying desperately to switch my head to long orientation to capture what I beleive could be significant fast upside  leading in to the fourth quarter.

All conjecture, though...

Safe trading all... and Motzas to everyone...

;)