monday, page-14

Hi Moped, life has been hectic with work, so my trading has been purely position, and my shorts are well out of the money. I should have known that the 8's would play again, and this BHP top shows the same 8 correlation. If that's true, then a slight overshoot below $40 would be the most likely, and in the event of an absolute disaster, $32 again. But unless this is a sustained downturn, I don't think we'll see 32.
People are talking about the next turn date in early-mid nov, so perhaps we fall for about a month, with tiny failed rallies in between.

Either way, the play is definitely a short now that the Dow is below 13700 (key range). Unless the US rallies hard on monday night to get back above 13700, I think we should see $43 odd by the end of this week. Its always difficult to pick the bottom. Even the last correction surprised me. We had significant support at both 35.50 and 34, so I guess it goes to show that the technical trades don't always give us solid bottoms.

BHP is no more solid now than it was a few months back, so I think the current price is hghly over inflated. A true value around 42, 43 should see the year out I'd say.