I think that the trades are all a balance of probability and...

I think that the trades are all a balance of probability and risk.
My question is: What is the probability that BHP will defy all other global cues and trade against the trend, to forge on to hits high side target of 48-50?

The risk/reward play here is a short down to a near downside target of 40, to exit. Then, pending further cues, either re-enter the short at 38.50, for a run to 34 - 35.50 or entering a long at 42.

Either way, the risk for going long here far outweighs the risks for going short.

Given the rhyming nature of history on the markets, and the fact that all would have to agree - being the stellar, accelerated gains in BHP over the last 2 months, means that the more LIKELY scenario is a fall in equities, with BHP being hit hard as people lock in their profits.

Imagine, if you were to sell out of a stock early, it would be the stock you've made 30% in 2 months on, rather than the stock thats only 5% up...Just part of human thinking and rationale, I'd say.

In any case, from a technical perspective, if the dow can hold 13700 by the end of the next week, then BHP should see $40 in the following week. THe year end target from my point of view is $42.