FLYCAT1967,I can't guess Mondays action but I suggest HDR will...

FLYCAT1967,

I can't guess Mondays action but I suggest HDR will start climbing soon (despite the odd doomsdayer on this stock and possible minor setback if Pelican doesn't come in). My short term price expectations for HDR is around $1.10 (say end Jan if not earlier). Hoping for more! Just a hunch based on some conservative calcs showing how massively undervalued HDR currently is. ie. assuming:

Ching = 125 mmbo (HDRs P50, not the average of 140mmbo)
Banda = 0 (56 already attributed, more likely around 80-100, plus masses of gas, but way off development & probab'y will slip down the list of appraisal drills for a while so market will probably ignore this, for now)
Tiof = 300 mmbo (probably minimum)
Assume $5 Aussie per barrel to HDR (probably low but banks will take some of the profits - anyone know what is typical net profit per barrel for typical West African developments)
Assume HDR will need 650 million shares (ie. allowing for another 150 million on the market for drilling over next two years)
Ignoring current cash (probablyy $20-$30 million)

On that basis HDR has about 33.2% of 425 mmbo ie 141.1 mmbo which at $5 Aussie per barrel = $705.5 million. At 650 million shares = $1.09 per share.

These are VERY conservative, allow for the next couple of big share placements to Chingetti development, and igonore any other news that should make the price take off - eg Hertiage finding oil in Uganda, farmout in French Guyana, etc. Oh, and WPl believes there's probably a couple of billion barrels in their current Mauritanean blocks alone, and they're confident enough to suggest a 30-50yr timeframe in the region.

In my opinion HDR is not so much a no-brainer as an anti-brainer. Even on simple sums like this, I reckon you'd have anti-brains not to be into them! I can't understand any negative posts other than pathetic attempts to attract attention or throw insults about.

My opinion only, please do your own sums on HDR!
I own HDR, PSA, AWE, ROC, HZN, CUE. Loved December, looking forward to January.

PS I don't post often but thanks to all the regulars' efforts to post on this stock.