Just doing a little research on the ASX 200 inclusion/process.
It seems shorting in advance of exclusion is pretty common.
For example, this from https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/major-shakeup-on-the-asx-2024s-largest-rebalance-is-underway
In addition to market cap, recent momentum is an important factor. Once exclusion becomes a distinct possibility, shorters play "stacks on" , knowing they can easily cover their shorts when the funds unload their stock.
This was interesting
Strike's chart is even more dramatic than 'the average' above. One upside is that there is, on average, a decent recovery after the effective date (although not median). Given Strike has a solid underlying business, you'd expect it will track the average. Many other companies falling out of the ASX probably have little income (e.g. see lithium explorers above) or high debt.
This explains the continuation of the high levels of shorting (despite the large correction after the SE2/3 results) more than speculation about an impending CR, I think.
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