That they are, but they know their sh1t and very entertaining/refreshing
Much much better than the traditional mining investment discussions that bore me into oblivion.
Just like how we are busy speculating about hidden dark forces here suppressing the SP for a predator, MM's theory is just another speculation but it's a play that had been played out many times before (where a company is shorted leading up to a raise and the shorter covered via the raise). Yes - including STX during its last raise for those with not very good memories.
MM's theory makes even more sense if one looks like STX's last qtrly report when it reported a large cash depletion with 22mn cash outflow. If one extrapolates that same trend for the next 3 qtrs, then it would need to raise. However, we know last couple of qtrs contained a lot of one-off payments for SE2/3 exploration and appraisal, which won't be incurred going forward. So it is possible that the shorters are expecting a CR simply based on the cash burn rate of the last 2 qtrs without realising that last 2 qtrs included a few one-off large expense items.
I personally don't think we need a raise based on current planned activities and expected cashflow. Our current cash inflow is about 5mn per month. Net cash balance was 23mn (45mn cash and debt of 22mn). Their net cash position should be around 38mn by end of June, which should be enough to cover W7 and ED1 (the last 2 high expense items for the year) by July. FID for WE shouldn't incur a lot of expense. With no major high expense item planned for the remaining of the year (except maybe OH1), the company should be able to rebuild its cash position by end of the year. If W7 delivers the goods, our cash inflow will also increase significantly once the DBP interconnector opens up with monthly inflow increasing from 5mn to c.8mn.
The only dark horse I can see is the SE commercialisation pathway. If it is a capital heavy option and it's not fully covered by a debt facility (or if Macca pulls their debt package and STX needs to look elsewhere), then STX may need to raise some cash to cover the shortfall.
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