I’m compelled to post here after listening to the Money of Mine podcast:
Link to PodcastThey had a former JP Morgan investment banker (27 years in mining M&A) on and when asked about CXO’s latest equity raise, he was very reserved... even sarcastic. His point was clear though, this raise doesn’t get CXO back to production.
The hosts themselves gave the raise a D-grade.
That worried me because it lines up with CXO’s own numbers. Before anyone jumps me I’m not short CXO. I’m a long-term lithium believer and invested in LTR. I want to see Aussie projects succeed, but I also don’t want to see retail get blindsided if this banker’s comments are right given they have inside mates they chat to about on going market happenings.
This is what GPT says about the numbers:
Cash runway: $23.5m at June qtr, just $9.4m by late August. Only 3.7 quarters of funding left at current burn.
Capex gap: Restart Study requires $175–200m pre-production. This raise ($50m placement + $10m SPP max) still leaves them ~$115–140m short.
Use of funds: $25m into BP33 box cut & decline, $5.8m long-lead items, $9.2m readiness, $29.4m working capital & costs.
Dilution: 476m new shares at $0.105 (17% discount), plus up to 95m more via SPP. Total shares swell to ~2.7b.
The Positives:
Finniss plan extended to a 20-year mine life, reserves 10.7Mt @ 1.29% Li₂O.
Unit costs cut — processing $40–46/t, crushing halved, FOB SC6 eq $690–785/t.
Infrastructure 100% owned, offtake flexibility after cancelling Yahua.
The Risks:
This raise is survival cash, not restart cash. Finniss stays in care & maintenance until that full $175–200m is locked in.
Dilution will likely continue. One raise now and probably more to come.
Takeover danger. If funding drags, a bigger fish can swoop in at a depressed price — retail left with peanuts.
No Revenue or partners
Anyway the banker’s reaction and the podcast’s D-grade got me a bit annoyed tbh but it's not just talk. CXO’s own docs confirm this raise only buys time. It doesn’t close the restart gap.
As someone invested in LTR and bullish lithium long-term, I’d hate to see retail punters here lose out. If this proves right, the outcomes looks more like ongoing dilution or a cheap takeover than a clean path back to production.
Not advice just sharing the dots I see.
Wishing the best for all holders and management to make a massive success.
(20min delay)