money, page-19

Gunga,old buddy, you have put me on the spot! I have based my guesstimates on comparing AMX with GRY [the original B.Faso twins].GRY claim a IRR of 17% at $1300 U.S.on a LOM of 8years. Bearing in mind the political uncertainties in subsaharan Africa I doubt whether a IRR of <25% would be acceptable Maybe GRY at $1400US could be achievable (with luck).GRY proposes a simple CIL process ,simple and inexpensive.AMX has inferior geological factors,IMO, AMX could process part of its resource utilising CIL but a significant fraction requires float and regrind, significantly more expensive.AMX estimate gold recovery of 85% for LOM ,GRY estimate 92% LOM gold recovery .AMX might have a dilution problem with Konkera Main in the mix ,it certainly wouldn't make it cheaper. GRY claims a LOM grade of 1.95 gpt significantly better than AMX's 1.70gpt for LOM. GRY quote a strip ratio of 6.1 to 1 IMO AMX will have a strip ratio nearer to 7.5 to 1 .AMX have a bigger proportion of their resource at a deeper level than the GRY resource GRY also has advantages in deposit size. IMO this makes AMX at least $150US per oz more expensive than GRY. Considering that even GRY could be prove to be a lame duck it doesn't say much for AMX's future! IMO we are looking at a prolonged period of weak GP .I expect GP to remain subdued for 3years at least which will really tax the nerves of some of our "get rich quick goldies". I think the market does have a degree of rationality otherwise I wouldn't be in it! At any rate best of luck to all.