MoneyMe IPO, page-4

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    Done some analysis on MM

    BENCHMARKS

    Used Afterpay and Prospa. Also looked at Latitudenumbers, Flexigroup and a few USA Latitude look a likes for a reality check.

    PROFITABILITY

    Only Money Me forecasts to make a small profit in 2020.

    EBIT to total revenue for Afterpay 11% , Prospa 12%and MM 30%.

    MM performs very well here.

    Afterpay bad debt write off at 22%, Prospa at 24%and MM 28%.

    All surprisingly similar.

    Interest Expense to Revenue , (cost of funds) is22% for Afterpay, 17% for Prospa and 28% for MM.

    As MM gets bigger you would think their funding costswill drop .

    BALANCE SHEET MEASURES

    Equity to total assets for Afterpay 79%, Prospa 31% andMM 34%.

    If I compare EBIT to total assets then Afterpay at3%, Prospa at 3% and MM at 11%.

    MM is a very good performer here.

    PRICING

    After Pay is stratospheric relative to everyone.

    Prospa also very high .

    Money me at $1.25 is very reasonably priced even for atech stock.

    Could even suggest they couldhave priced MM higher for this IPO.

    Unless I am really missing something .

    AFTERPAY

    So why does the market like this model.

    I have not looked at its financing model in depth but itgenerates 32 cents in revenue for every $1 in assets. This compares withLatitude at 15cents, Flexigroup at 15 cents , BOQ at 4 cents.

    USA benchmarks in range of 8 to 20 %.

    In short, look at the classical old bank , BOQ at 4 centsversus Afterpay at 32 cents.

    If Afterpay gets this right they should make a lot ofmoney as their asset base is a lot more productive in generating revenue.

    Now, if you look at Prospa, it generates 27 cents inrevenue for every $1 in assets and MM does 36 cents.

    Again, MM a very good performer on this metric.

    OTHER COMMENTS

    MM is the smallest revenue at $46m, After Pay $264m andProspa at $128m.

    CONCLUSION

    Valuing MM as a tech stock with potential then reckon itis worth around $1.50 to $1.80.

    Would also not surprise me if it hits $2.

    Even at the above price predictions it is stillsignificantly cheaper than Prospa and Afterpay.

    I will be bidding for stock and good luck to everyone

    Any other views ?

 
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