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Starting from January 1, 2024, the temporary zero tariff policy for imported coal will also come to an end. Due to the free trade agreement, Indonesia and Australia, the main sources of thermal coal imports, will continue to maintain their zero-tariff policy. We believe that the tariff restoration policy is expected to have a certain impact on the import of Russian coal and Mongolian coal. The tariffs of countries such as Mongolia, Russia, the United States, and Canada implement 3%, 5%, or 6% tax rates, of which the coking coal tax rate is 3%. The restoration of the tax rate will increase the cost of coal, which may have a certain impact on import volume. The overall impact on coking coal is relatively greater than that on thermal coal, resulting in a slight increase in the cost of coking coal imports.
According to the latest statistics, Chinese imported a total of 474.43 million tons of coal in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 61.7%. analysis shows that thermal coal imports were 350 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 62.8%, accounts for 74.5%; coking coal imports were 100 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 60.6%, accounts for 21.6%;
From a country perspective, Indonesia’s coal imports were 220 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, accounts for 46.4%; Russia’s coal imports were 100 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 50.1%, accounts for 21.5%;
Mongolia’s coal imports were 69.97 million tons, a year-on-year increase 124.6%, accounting for 14.7%; Australian coal imports were 52.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1737.4%, accounting for 11.1%.
The main importing countries of thermal coal are Indonesia, Russia and Australia, with import volumes of 216.24 million tons, 57.98 million tons and 49.35 million tons respectively.
The main importing countries of coking coal are Mongolia and Russia, with import volumes of 53.96 million tons and 26.63 million tons respectively.
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