mongombolo's - crash or crash through tuesday, page-122

Well, my dastardly plan this morning came in on cue. I get a few right every now and again. :)

XJO (ASX200) -0.6%
XTL (Twenty Leaders) -0.5%
XFL (Fifty Leaders) -0.5%
XFJ (Financials) -0.9%
XMJ (Materials) +0.3%
Energy -0.8%
XSO (Small Ordinaries) -0.8%

Comment: A narrow range day on increasing volume. Theory says that this is Professional Money selling out while others are buying. But, this time, I don’t think it’s that simple. The weakest sectors today were defensives: Health -3.2%, Utilities -1.4%, Telecoms, -1.2%, and Info Tech (which acts like a defensive) -1.7%. So if Professional Money was selling – it seems it was selling defensives – which is bullish. hmmmm. Add to that the fact that the Advance/Decline Ratio was just on the bullish side: 1.1/1, and you’ve got further evidence.

Here’s an update on the BHP Chart:

Now that doesn’t look so good. BHP hit resistance and fell on heavier volume. Still, it now is in a symmetrical triangle. These can break either way. Let’s wait and see.

INDICATORS:
RSI.9: 57.3. Falling. But still on the Positive side of its mid-line.
MACD (zero-lag) Histogram. Below Zero. Negative.
MACD (zero-lag). Above Zero. Positive.
Stochastic: 81. Overbought.
Bollinger Bands and 20-Day MA have flattened out – this is non-trending.
CCI.14: +71.2. Positive.

The XJO closed at 4227.9. Within striking distance of 4300 Next lines of support: 4200, 4160, 4040. Hit oblique resistance today and fell.

This is one of those days which just leaves you wondering. Just too many conflicting signals. Let’s see how tomorrow goes. My inclination is still to the upside, but, inclinations disappear in the hard light of reality. A big day down tomorrow on increasing volume would send me scuttling into the short term bear camp.

Good luck
Redbacka