Mongomery discusses SRX valuation, page-3

Roger talks about, albeit lightheartedly, about wiping out 4% of his portfolio or making a fortune.

As a serious fund manager he would not be holding unless he considered the risk of a failure, and if he thought there was any chance, other than a black swan event, of a catastrophic failure then he would be reducing. Funds managers are not in the business of gambling, but taking calculated risks.

Based on the risks involved then one must assume there is a fair amount of upside. If the downside is say a SP of $18, and plenty of stock is being traded at almost 100% above that, then Mr Market is telling us that there must be a substantial upside. Otherwise why would anyone buy / hold at current elevated prices? If little upside then surely one would sell, and buy back in after the top line results?

Or, Mr Market is so over confident that it may tell us that they had read the tea leaves and decided there is no risk?

So, just for one minute, lets assume a +ve top line result. How much upside can there be between March and June when the detail data is available? Sure we can assume that if the detail shows a 'standard of care' type value then $100 is on the cards, within a year or two. However a worst case would be little overall survival and thus salvage treatment would be the core business, and maybe back to ~$18.

IMO, MR market is pricing in to some degree, not only a top line result, but also a reasonable result on the detailed data set in June.

I sure hope Mr Market is correct!